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A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument

Franceschi, Paul (2003) A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument. [Preprint]

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    Abstract

    In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the Eckhardt et al. analysis. The present line of thought is based on the fact that both aforementioned analyses are based on an inaccurate analogy. After discussing the imperfections of both models, I present then a two-sided model that fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA and encapsulates both Carter-Leslie's and Eckhardt et al.'s models. I argue then that this new analogy also holds when one takes into account the issue of indeterminism and the reference class problem. This leads finally to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more consensual than the original one.


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    Item Type: Preprint
    Additional Information: important update
    Keywords: Doomsday argument, indeterminism, two-urn case
    Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
    General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism
    Depositing User: Paul Franceschi
    Date Deposited: 24 May 2003
    Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 11:11
    Item ID: 1187
    URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/1187

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