Franceschi, Paul (2003) Sleeping Beauty in Flatland. UNSPECIFIED. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

I present a solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I begin with the consensual emerald case and describe then a set of relevant urn analogies and situations. These latter experiments make it easier to diagnose the flaw in the thirder's line of reasoning. I discuss in detail the root cause of the flaw in the argument for 1/3 which is an erroneous assimilation with a repeated experiment. Lastly, I discuss an informative variant of the original Sleeping Beauty experiment that casts light on the diagnosis of the fallacy in the argument for 1/3.

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Item Type:	Other
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Franceschi, Paul
Keywords:	Sleeping Beauty problem, emerald case, Flatland, observation selection effect
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User:	Paul Franceschi
Date Deposited:	22 Aug 2003
Last Modified:	07 Oct 2010 15:12
Item ID:	1351
Public Domain:	No
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date:	August 2003
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/1351

Available Versions of this Item

• Sleeping Beauty in Flatland. (deposited 22 Aug 2003) [Currently Displayed]
  • Sleeping Beauty in Flatland. (deposited 20 Jan 2004)
    • Sleeping Beauty and the Problem of World Reduction. (deposited 22 Jan 2005)
      • Sleeping Beauty and the Problem of World Reduction. (deposited 20 Dec 2005)
        • An Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. (deposited 18 Nov 2008)
          • A Two-Sided Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. (deposited 11 Dec 2008)
            • A Two-Sided Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. (deposited 29 Oct 2010 15:48)

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