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Sleeping Beauty in Flatland

Franceschi, Paul (2003) Sleeping Beauty in Flatland. UNSPECIFIED. (Unpublished)

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I present a solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I begin with the consensual emerald case and describe then a set of relevant urn analogies and situations. These latter experiments make it easier to diagnose the flaw in the thirder's line of reasoning. I discuss in detail the root cause of the flaw in the argument for 1/3 which is an erroneous assimilation with a repeated experiment. Lastly, I discuss an informative variant of the original Sleeping Beauty experiment that casts light on the diagnosis of the fallacy in the argument for 1/3.

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Item Type: Other
Franceschi, Paul
Keywords: Sleeping Beauty problem, emerald case, Flatland, observation selection effect
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Paul Franceschi
Date Deposited: 22 Aug 2003
Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 15:12
Item ID: 1351
Public Domain: No

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