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Sleeping Beauty in Flatland

Franceschi, Paul (2004) Sleeping Beauty in Flatland. [Preprint]

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    Abstract

    I describe in this paper a solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I begin with the consensual emerald case and I also discuss Bostrom's Incubator gedanken. I address then the Sleeping Beauty problem. I argue that the root cause of the flaw in the argument for 1/3 is an erroneous assimilation with a repeated experiment. Lastly, I present an informative variant of the original Sleeping Beauty experiment that casts light on the diagnosis of the fallacy in the argument for 1/3.


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    Item Type: Preprint
    Keywords: Sleeping Beauty problem, probability theory, paradox, Nelson Goodman
    Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
    Depositing User: Paul Franceschi
    Date Deposited: 20 Jan 2004
    Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 11:12
    Item ID: 1580
    URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/1580

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