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Two Measures of Incoherence: How not to gamble if you must

Schervish, Mark J. and Seidenfeld, Teddy and Kadane, Joseph B. (1998) Two Measures of Incoherence: How not to gamble if you must. [Preprint]

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    Abstract

    The degree of incoherence, when previsions are not made in accordance with a probability measure, is measured by either of two rates at which an incoherent bookie can be made a sure loser. Each bet is considered as an investment from the points of view of both the bookie and a gambler who takes the bet. From each viewpoint, we define an amount invested (or escrowed) for each bet, and the sure loss of incoherent previsions is divided by the escrow to determine the rate of incoherence. Potential applications include the treatment of arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and the degree of incoherence of classical statistical procedures. We illustrate the latter with the example of hypothesis testing at a fixed size.


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    Item Type: Preprint
    Keywords: Dutch Book, incoherence, incoherent previsions
    Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
    Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
    Depositing User: Teddy Seidenfeld
    Date Deposited: 20 Feb 2001
    Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 11:10
    Item ID: 160
    URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/160

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