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Two Measures of Incoherence: How not to gamble if you must

Schervish, Mark J. and Seidenfeld, Teddy and Kadane, Joseph B. (1998) Two Measures of Incoherence: How not to gamble if you must. [Preprint]


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The degree of incoherence, when previsions are not made in accordance with a probability measure, is measured by either of two rates at which an incoherent bookie can be made a sure loser. Each bet is considered as an investment from the points of view of both the bookie and a gambler who takes the bet. From each viewpoint, we define an amount invested (or escrowed) for each bet, and the sure loss of incoherent previsions is divided by the escrow to determine the rate of incoherence. Potential applications include the treatment of arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and the degree of incoherence of classical statistical procedures. We illustrate the latter with the example of hypothesis testing at a fixed size.

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Item Type: Preprint
Schervish, Mark J.
Seidenfeld, Teddy
Kadane, Joseph B.
Keywords: Dutch Book, incoherence, incoherent previsions
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Teddy Seidenfeld
Date Deposited: 20 Feb 2001
Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 15:10
Item ID: 160

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