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A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument

Franceschi, Paul (2004) A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument. [Preprint]

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    Abstract

    In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the Eckhardt et al. analysis. I begin by strengthening both competing models by highlighting some variations of their ancestors models, which renders them less vulnerable to some objections. I describe then a third line of solution, which incorporates insights from both Leslie and Eckhardt's models and fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA. I argue then that this two-sided analogy also holds when one takes into account the issue of indeterminism and the reference class problem. This leads finally to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more consensual than the original one.


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    Item Type: Preprint
    Keywords: Doomsday argument, indeterminism, probability theory, analogy
    Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
    General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism
    Depositing User: Paul Franceschi
    Date Deposited: 26 Feb 2004
    Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 11:12
    Item ID: 1631
    URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/1631

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