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Theory Change and Bayesian Statistical Inference

Romeyn, Jan-Willem (2004) Theory Change and Bayesian Statistical Inference. In: UNSPECIFIED. (Unpublished)


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This paper addresses the problem that Bayesian statistical inference cannot accommodate theory change, and proposes a framework for dealing with such changes. It first presents a scheme for generating predictions from observations by means of hypotheses. An example shows how the hypotheses represent the theoretical structure underlying the scheme. This is followed by an example of a change of hypotheses. The paper then presents a general framework for hypotheses change, and proposes the minimization of the distance between hypotheses as a rationality criterion. Finally the paper discusses the import of this for Bayesian statistical inference.

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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Romeyn, Jan-Willem
Keywords: theory change, Bayesian statistical inference, inductive predictions, cross-entropy
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Theory Change
Depositing User: Jan-Willem Romeyn
Date Deposited: 15 Oct 2004
Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 15:12
Item ID: 1998
Public Domain: No

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