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Theory Change and Bayesian Statistical Inference

Romeyn, Jan-Willem (2004) Theory Change and Bayesian Statistical Inference. In: [2004] Philosophy of Science Assoc. 19th Biennial Meeting - PSA2004: Contributed Papers (Austin, TX; 2004) > PSA 2004 Contributed Papers. (Unpublished)

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    Abstract

    This paper addresses the problem that Bayesian statistical inference cannot accommodate theory change, and proposes a framework for dealing with such changes. It first presents a scheme for generating predictions from observations by means of hypotheses. An example shows how the hypotheses represent the theoretical structure underlying the scheme. This is followed by an example of a change of hypotheses. The paper then presents a general framework for hypotheses change, and proposes the minimization of the distance between hypotheses as a rationality criterion. Finally the paper discusses the import of this for Bayesian statistical inference.


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    Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
    Keywords: theory change, Bayesian statistical inference, inductive predictions, cross-entropy
    Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
    General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
    General Issues > Theory Change
    Conferences and Volumes: [2004] Philosophy of Science Assoc. 19th Biennial Meeting - PSA2004: Contributed Papers (Austin, TX; 2004) > PSA 2004 Contributed Papers
    Depositing User: Jan-Willem Romeyn
    Date Deposited: 15 Oct 2004
    Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 11:12
    Item ID: 1998
    Public Domain: No
    URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/1998

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