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A Philosopher's Guide to Empirical Success

Forster, Malcolm R. (2006) A Philosopher's Guide to Empirical Success. In: UNSPECIFIED.


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The simple question "What is empirical success?" turns out to have a surprisingly intricate answer. The paper begins with the point that empirical success cannot be equated with goodness-of-fit without making some kind of distinction between meritorious fit and fudged fit. The proposal that empirical success is adequately defined by Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) is analyzed in this light. What is called cross-validated fit is proposed as a further improvement. But it still leaves something out. The final proposal is that empirical success has a hierarchical structure that commonly emerges from the agreement of independent measurements of theoretically postulated quantities.

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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Forster, Malcolm R.
Depositing User: Malcolm R. Forster
Date Deposited: 07 Oct 2006
Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 15:14
Item ID: 2949
Date: 2006

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