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Probability, Rational Single-Case Decisions and the Monty Hall Problem

Sprenger, Jan (2007) Probability, Rational Single-Case Decisions and the Monty Hall Problem. [Preprint]

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    The application of probabilistic arguments to single cases and decision-making is a contentious philosophical problem arises in various contexts. This paper focuses on the validity of probabilistic arguments in the Monty Hall problem and a variation thereof. Two claims are made and defended. First, preferring a certain strategy to another in the Monty Hall Problem does not need any recourse to long-run success frequencies. Second, recent attempts to refute the standard solution of the Monty Hall Problem fail.

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    Item Type: Preprint
    Keywords: Probability, Rational Decision, Monty Hall Problem
    Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
    General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
    Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
    Depositing User: Jan Sprenger
    Date Deposited: 13 Dec 2007
    Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 11:15
    Item ID: 3727

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