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An Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem

Franceschi, Paul (2008) An Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem. [Preprint]

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    Abstract

    I describe in this paper an ontological solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I begin with describing the Entanglement urn experiment. I restate first the Sleeping Beauty problem from a wider perspective than the usual opposition between halfers and thirders. I also argue that the Sleeping Beauty experiment is best modelled with the Entanglement urn. I draw then the consequences of considering that some balls in the Entanglement urn have ontologically different properties form normal ones. The upshot is that I endorse the halfer conclusion on the probability of Heads once beauty is awaken and the thirder conclusion on conditional probabilities, and that original conclusions ensue on the probability of waking on Monday.


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    Item Type: Preprint
    Keywords: Sleeping Beauty problem, urn analogy, entanglement
    Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
    Depositing User: Paul Franceschi
    Date Deposited: 18 Nov 2008
    Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 11:17
    Item ID: 4341
    URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/4341

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