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Sleeping Beauty: Debate on a Paradox

Delabre, Laurent (2008) Sleeping Beauty: Debate on a Paradox. [Preprint]


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I restate the Sleeping Beauty probabilistic paradox and offer an overview of the ongoing discussions that aim at resolving the problem. I summarize and eventually criticize briefly the various views: neutral position, Bayesian thirdism, non-Bayesian thirdism, traditional halfism, as well as the new halfism of credence conservation, a somewhat neglected but interesting point of view. I try at the same time to clarify some essential notions, to introduce the main actors of the debate, and to anticipate its evolution.

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Item Type: Preprint
Delabre, Laurent
Keywords: sleeping beauty, probability, bayesianism, frequentism, subjectivism, objectivism, self-locating, centered world, observation selection effects, reflection, paradox, thought experiments
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Laurent Delabre
Date Deposited: 18 Dec 2008
Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 15:17
Item ID: 4342

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