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Hempel`s Raven Paradox: A Lacuna in the Standard Bayesian Solution

Vranas, Peter B. M. (2002) Hempel`s Raven Paradox: A Lacuna in the Standard Bayesian Solution. [Preprint]

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    Abstract

    According to Hempel`s paradox, evidence (E) that an object is a nonblack nonraven confirms the hypothesis (H) that every raven is black. According to the standard Bayesian solution, E does confirm H but only to a minute degree. This solution relies on the almost never explicitly defended assumption that the probability of H should not be affected by evidence that an object is nonblack. I argue that this assumption is implausible, and I propose a way out for the Bayesians.


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    Item Type: Preprint
    Keywords: Confirmation/Induction, Bayesianism
    Conferences and Volumes: [2002] Philosophy of Science Assoc. 18th Biennial Mtg - PSA 2002: Contributed Papers (Milwaukee, WI; 2002) > PSA 2002 Contributed Papers
    Depositing User: Program Committee
    Date Deposited: 30 Jul 2002
    Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 11:10
    Item ID: 688
    URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/688

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