PhilSci Archive

Cosmic Confusions: Not Supporting versus Supporting Not-

Norton, John D. (2012) Cosmic Confusions: Not Supporting versus Supporting Not-. [Preprint]

This is the latest version of this item.

[img]
Preview
PDF
Cosm_confusion.pdf - Draft Version

Download (360kB)

Abstract

Bayesian probabilistic explication of inductive inference conflates neutrality of supporting evidence for some hypothesis H (“not supporting H”) with disfavoring evidence (“supporting not-H”). This expressive inadequacy leads to spurious results that are artifacts of a poor choice of inductive logic. I illustrate how such artifacts have arisen in simple inductive inferences in cosmology. In the inductive disjunctive fallacy, neutral support for many possibilities is spuriously converted into strong support for their disjunction. The Bayesian “doomsday argument” is shown to rely entirely on a similar artifact, for the result disappears in a reanalysis that employs fragments of inductive logic able to represent evidential neutrality. Finally, the mere supposition of a multiverse is not yet enough to warrant the introduction of probabilities without some factual analog of a randomizer over the multiverses.


Export/Citation: EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL
Social Networking:
Share |

Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Norton, John D.jdnorton@pitt.edu
Additional Information: The new version is altered considerably and contains much new material. This is a preprint of the article with the same title appearing in Philosophy of Science, 77 (2010), pp. 501-23.
Keywords: Bayes confirmation cosmology doomsday argument induction probability
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Physics > Cosmology
Depositing User: John Norton
Date Deposited: 12 May 2012 13:11
Last Modified: 12 May 2012 13:11
Item ID: 9114
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Physics > Cosmology
Date: 11 May 2012
URI: https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/9114

Available Versions of this Item

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item