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Model Uncertainty and Policy Choice: A Plea for Integrated Subjectivism

Isaac, Alistair (2013) Model Uncertainty and Policy Choice: A Plea for Integrated Subjectivism. In: UNSPECIFIED.

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Abstract

A question at the intersection of scientific modeling and public choice is how to deal with uncertainty about model predictions. This "high-level" uncertainty is necessarily value-laden, and thus must be treated as irreducibly subjective. Nevertheless, formal methods of uncertainty analysis should still be employed for the purpose of clarifying policy debates. I argue that such debates are best informed by models which integrate objective features (which model the world) with subjective ones (modeling the policy-maker). This integrated subjectivism is illustrated with a case study from the literature on monetary policy. The paper concludes with some morals for the use of models in determining climate policy.


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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Isaac, Alistairaisaac@sas.upenn.edu
Additional Information: Paper for talk originally titled "Uncertainty about Uncertainties: A Plea for Integrated Subjectivism"
Keywords: models, decision theory, subjectivism, climate science, economics, policy
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
General Issues > Models and Idealization
General Issues > Science Policy
Depositing User: Alistair Isaac
Date Deposited: 13 Jul 2013 09:59
Last Modified: 13 Jul 2013 09:59
Item ID: 9879
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
General Issues > Models and Idealization
General Issues > Science Policy
Date: 12 July 2013
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/9879

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