Hempel`s Raven Paradox: A Lacuna in the Standard Bayesian Solution

Vranas, Peter B. M. (2002) Hempel`s Raven Paradox: A Lacuna in the Standard Bayesian Solution.

Abstract

According to Hempel`s paradox, evidence (E) that an object is a nonblack nonraven confirms the hypothesis (H) that every raven is black. According to the standard Bayesian solution, E does confirm H but only to a minute degree. This solution relies on the almost never explicitly defended assumption that the probability of H should not be affected by evidence that an object is nonblack. I argue that this assumption is implausible, and I propose a way out for the Bayesians.