Sleeping Beauty in Flatland

Franceschi, Paul (2003) Sleeping Beauty in Flatland.

There is a more recent version of this eprint available. Click here to view it.

Full text available as:
PDF - Requires a viewer, such as Adobe Acrobat Reader or other PDF viewer.

Abstract

I present a solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I begin with the consensual emerald case and describe then a set of relevant urn analogies and situations. These latter experiments make it easier to diagnose the flaw in the thirder's line of reasoning. I discuss in detail the root cause of the flaw in the argument for 1/3 which is an erroneous assimilation with a repeated experiment. Lastly, I discuss an informative variant of the original Sleeping Beauty experiment that casts light on the diagnosis of the fallacy in the argument for 1/3.

Keywords:	Sleeping Beauty problem, emerald case, Flatland, observation selection effect
Subjects:	Specific Sciences: Probability/Statistics
ID Code:	1351
Deposited By:	Franceschi, Paul
Deposited On:	22 August 2003

Available Versions of this Item

Sleeping Beauty in Flatland (deposited 22 August 2003) [Currently Displayed]
- Sleeping Beauty in Flatland (deposited 20 January 2004)
  - Sleeping Beauty and the Problem of World Reduction (deposited 22 January 2005)
    - Sleeping Beauty and the Problem of World Reduction (deposited 20 December 2005)
      - An Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem (deposited 18 November 2008)
        A Two-Sided Ontological Solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem (deposited 11 December 2008)