A Philosopher's Guide to Empirical Success

Forster, Malcolm R. (2006) A Philosopher's Guide to Empirical Success. In [2006] Philosophy of Science Assoc. 20th Biennial Mtg (Vancouver): PSA 2006 Contributed Papers.

Full text available as:
PDF - Requires a viewer, such as Adobe Acrobat Reader or other PDF viewer.

Abstract

The simple question "What is empirical success?" turns out to have a surprisingly intricate answer. The paper begins with the point that empirical success cannot be equated with goodness-of-fit without making some kind of distinction between meritorious fit and fudged fit. The proposal that empirical success is adequately defined by
Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) is analyzed in this light. What is called cross-validated fit is proposed as a further improvement. But it still leaves something out. The final proposal is that empirical success has a hierarchical structure that commonly emerges from the agreement of independent measurements of theoretically postulated quantities.

Conferences and Volumes:[2006] Philosophy of Science Assoc. 20th Biennial Mtg (Vancouver): PSA 2006 Contributed Papers
ID Code:2949
Deposited By:Forster, Malcolm R.
Deposited On:07 October 2006