Probability, Rational Single-Case Decisions and the Monty Hall Problem

Sprenger, Jan (2007) Probability, Rational Single-Case Decisions and the Monty Hall Problem.

Abstract

The application of probabilistic arguments to single cases and decision-making is a contentious
philosophical problem arises in various contexts. This paper focuses on the validity of
probabilistic arguments in the Monty Hall problem and a variation thereof. Two claims are made and
defended. First, preferring a certain strategy to another in the Monty Hall Problem does not need
any recourse to long-run success frequencies. Second, recent attempts to refute the standard
solution of the Monty Hall Problem fail.