VARIETIES OF POSSIBILITY:
HOW ITERATED MODALITIES SOLVE A METHODOLOGICAL DILEMMA OF SIMULATING UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Betz, Gregor (2009) VARIETIES OF POSSIBILITY:
HOW ITERATED MODALITIES SOLVE A METHODOLOGICAL DILEMMA OF SIMULATING UNDER UNCERTAINTY . In [2009] Models and Simulations 3 (Charlottesville, Virginia; March 5-7, 2009).
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Abstract
This paper sketched a conceptual framework for expressing uncertain, possibilistic knowledge. A framework which allows to express our foreknow-ledge in a more nuanced way than simply by labelling some statements about the future as possible. I suggested that we should adopt this framework for stat-ing and communicating scientific results in the epistemic mode of uncertainty. This avoids the methodological dilemma between modal inductivism and mo-dal falsificationism. The framework's conceptual variety of possibilities trig-gers a methodological variety, a plurality of modal methods. Some of these rely on traditional virtues of scientific reasoning, others don't. In some disci-plines, computer simulations might, surprisingly, be most profitably applied in and contribute to the creative methods, rather than the strict and formal ones.
| Keywords: | simulation, climate change, prediction, limits of science, possibility, scenario |
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| Subjects: | General Issues: Decision Theory General Issues: Models and Idealization Specific Sciences: Earth Sciences General Issues: Values In Science |
| Conferences and Volumes: | [2009] Models and Simulations 3 (Charlottesville, Virginia; March 5-7, 2009) |
| ID Code: | 4490 |
| Deposited By: | Betz, Gregor |
| Deposited On: | 05 March 2009 |