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The premises of Condorcet's jury theorem are not simultaneously justified
Dietrich, Franz
Probability/Statistics
Decision Theory
Confirmation/Induction
Causation
Economics
Condorcet's famous jury theorem reaches an optimistic conclusion on the correctness of majority decisions, based on two controversial premises about voters: they should be competent and vote independently, in a technical sense. I carefully analyse these premises and show that: (i) whether a premise is justified depends on the notion of uncertainty or probability employed; (ii) no such notion renders both premises simultaneously justified. Especially the independence assumption should be weakened.
2008-03
Other
NonPeerReviewed
application/pdf
http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/3939/1/Dietrich%2DCondorcetJuryTheorem.pdf
Dietrich, Franz (2008) The premises of Condorcet's jury theorem are not simultaneously justified. UNSPECIFIED.
http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/3939/