Kao, Molly (2017) Old Evidence in the Development of Quantum Theory. [Preprint]

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Abstract

In this paper, I evaluate Hartmann & Fitelson’s solution to the Bayesian problem of old evidence by applying it to an early stage in the development of quantum theory. I argue that this case study suggests that whether old evidence is anomalous or not affects its support for a hypothesis. I introduce and defend two formal assumptions to accommodate this idea. This analysis not only explicates an important historical example, but it also shows that the given solution captures the intuitive importance of “surprising” evidence that has previously been problematic in the context of old evidence.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Kao, Molly molly.kao@umontreal.ca 0000-0001-7656-904X
Keywords:	old evidence, quantum theory, theory development, history of physics, Bayesian analysis
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > History of Science Case Studies Specific Sciences > Physics
Depositing User:	Dr. Molly Kao
Date Deposited:	17 May 2017 14:10
Last Modified:	17 May 2017 14:10
Item ID:	13043
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > History of Science Case Studies Specific Sciences > Physics
Date:	9 April 2017
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/13043

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