Navas, Alejandro and Nabergall, Lukas and Winsberg, Eric (2017) An Antidote for Hawkmoths: On the prevalence of structural chaos in non-linear modeling. [Preprint]
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Abstract
This paper deals with the question of whether uncertainty regarding model structure, especially in climate modeling, exhibits a kind of ``chaos.'' Do small changes in model structure, in other words, lead to large variations in ensemble predictions? More specifically, does model error destroy forecast skill faster than the ordinary or ``classical" chaos inherent in the real-world attractor? In some cases, the answer to this question seems to be ``yes." But how common is this state of affairs? And are there precise mathematical results that can help us answer this question? We examine some efforts in the literature to answer this last question in the affirmative and find them to be unconvincing.
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| Item Type: | Preprint | ||||||||||||
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| Keywords: | Climate Science, Structural Stability, Hawkmoth Effect, Predictability, Dynamical Systems. | ||||||||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Complex Systems Specific Sciences > Earth Sciences Specific Sciences > Physics |
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| Depositing User: | Dr Eric Winsberg | ||||||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 27 Aug 2018 14:21 | ||||||||||||
| Last Modified: | 27 Aug 2018 14:21 | ||||||||||||
| Item ID: | 14979 | ||||||||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Complex Systems Specific Sciences > Earth Sciences Specific Sciences > Physics |
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| Date: | 22 June 2017 | ||||||||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/14979 |
Available Versions of this Item
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An antidote for hawkmoths: a response to recent climate-skeptical arguments grounded in the topology of dynamical systems. (deposited 23 Jun 2017 17:00)
- An Antidote for Hawkmoths: On the prevalence of structural chaos in non-linear modeling. (deposited 27 Aug 2018 14:21) [Currently Displayed]
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