Sprenger, Jan (2019) Conditional Degree of Belief and Bayesian Inference. Philosophy of Science, 87 (2). pp. 319-335. ISSN 1539-767X

Preview

Text ConditionalProbability_v12.pdf Download (201kB) | Preview

Abstract

Why are conditional degrees of belief in an observation E, given a statistical hypothesis H, aligned with the objective probabilities expressed by H? After showing that standard replies (ratio analysis of conditional probability, chance-credence coordination) are not satisfactory, I develop a suppositional analysis of conditional degree of belief, transferring Ramsey’s classical proposal to statistical inference. The analysis saves the alignment, explains the role of chance-credence coordination, and rebuts the charge of arbitrary assessment of evidence in Bayesian inference. Finally, I explore the implications of this analysis for Bayesian reasoning with idealized models in science.

---

Export/Citation:

EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL

Social Networking:

Share |

---

Item Type:	Published Article or Volume
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Sprenger, Jan j.sprenger@uvt.nl 0000-0003-0083-9685
Keywords:	conditional probability, degree of belief, statistical inference, Principal Principle, Ramsey
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Models and Idealization Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User:	Jan Sprenger
Date Deposited:	13 May 2020 01:43
Last Modified:	13 May 2020 01:43
Item ID:	17174
Journal or Publication Title:	Philosophy of Science
Publisher:	University of Chicago Press
Official URL:	https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/...
DOI or Unique Handle:	https://doi.org/10.1086/707554
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Models and Idealization Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date:	1 July 2019
Page Range:	pp. 319-335
Volume:	87
Number:	2
ISSN:	1539-767X
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/17174

Available Versions of this Item

• Conditional Degree of Belief. (deposited 13 Dec 2015 13:20)
  • Conditional Degree of Belief. (deposited 25 Feb 2016 04:06)
    • Conditional Degree of Belief. (deposited 25 Jul 2016 17:06)
      • Conditional Degree of Belief. (deposited 06 Oct 2017 05:06)
        • Conditional Degree of Belief and Bayesian Inference. (deposited 13 May 2020 01:43) [Currently Displayed]

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Altmetric.com

Actions (login required)

View Item