O'Loughlin, Ryan (2023) Diagnosing errors in climate model intercomparisons. [Preprint]

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Abstract

I examine error diagnosis (model-model disagreement) in climate model intercomparisons including its difficulties, fruitful examples, and prospects for streamlining error diagnosis. I suggest that features of climate model intercomparisons pose a more significant challenge for error diagnosis than do features of individual model construction and complexity. Such features of intercomparisons include, e.g., the number of models involved, how models from different institutions interrelate, and what scientists know about each model. By considering numerous examples in the climate modeling literature, I distill general strategies (e.g., employing physical reasoning and using dimension reduction techniques) used to diagnose model error. Based on these examples, I argue that an error repertoire could be beneficial for improving error diagnosis in climate modeling, although constructing one faces several difficulties. Finally, I suggest that the practice of error diagnosis demonstrates that scientists have a tacit-yet-working understanding of their models which has been under-appreciated by some philosophers.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID O'Loughlin, Ryan roloughlin@qc.cuny.edu 0000-0002-9106-1460
Additional Information:	Accepted for publication at European Journal for Philosophy of Science on March 9th, 2023.
Keywords:	climate models; model error; model disagreement; model intercomparisons; analytic understanding
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Complex Systems Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology General Issues > Computer Simulation General Issues > Social Epistemology of Science
Depositing User:	Dr. Ryan O'Loughlin
Date Deposited:	11 Mar 2023 15:32
Last Modified:	11 Mar 2023 15:32
Item ID:	21866
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Complex Systems Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology General Issues > Computer Simulation General Issues > Social Epistemology of Science
Date:	10 March 2023
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/21866

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• Diagnosing errors in climate model intercomparisons. (deposited 11 Mar 2023 15:32) [Currently Displayed]
  • Diagnosing errors in climate model intercomparisons. (deposited 29 Mar 2023 18:19)

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