PhilSci Archive

Probability, Confirmation, and the Conjunction Fallacy

Vincenzo, Crupi and Branden, Fitelson and Katya, Tentori (2007) Probability, Confirmation, and the Conjunction Fallacy. In: UNSPECIFIED.

This is the latest version of this item.

[img]
Preview
PDF
Prob_Conf_and_CF_(April_2007).pdf

Download (244kB)

Abstract

The conjunction fallacy has been a key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations. Despite extensive inquiry, however, the attempt of providing a satisfactory account of the phenomenon has proven challenging. Here, we elaborate the suggestion (first discussed by Sides et al., 2001) that in standard conjunction problems the fallacious probability judgments experimentally observed are typically guided by sound assessments of confirmation relations, meant in terms of contemporary Bayesian confirmation theory. Our main formal result is a confirmation-theoretic account of the conjuntion fallacy which is proven robust (i.e., not depending on various alternative ways of measuring degrees of confirmation). The proposed analysis is shown distinct from contentions that the conjunction effect is in fact not a fallacy and is compared with major competing explanations of the phenomenon, including earlier references to a confirmation-theoretic account.


Export/Citation: EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL
Social Networking:
Share |

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Vincenzo, Crupi
Branden, Fitelson
Katya, Tentori
Keywords: confirmation, conjunction fallacy
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Depositing User: Vincenzo Crupi
Date Deposited: 24 Apr 2007
Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 15:15
Item ID: 3314
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Date: 2007
URI: https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/3314

Available Versions of this Item

Commentary/Response Threads

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item