Zhang, Jiji and Zhang, Kun (2014) Likelihood and Consilience: On Forster's Counterexamples to the Likelihood Theory of Evidence. In: UNSPECIFIED.

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Abstract

Forster presented some interesting examples having to do with distinguishing the direction of causal influence between two variables, which he argued are counterexamples to the likelihood theory of evidence (LTE). In this paper, we refute Forster's arguments by carefully examining one of the alleged counterexamples. We argue that the example is not convincing as it relies on dubious intuitions that likelihoodists have forcefully criticized. More importantly, we show that contrary to Forster's contention, the consilience-based methodology he favored is accountable within the framework of the LTE.

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Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Zhang, Jiji jijizhang@ln.edu.hk Zhang, Kun
Keywords:	Causal Inference, Consilience, Likelihood Theory of Evidence
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Depositing User:	Dr Jiji Zhang
Date Deposited:	28 Oct 2014 17:36
Last Modified:	28 Oct 2014 17:36
Item ID:	11093
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Date:	2014
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/11093

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