Schindler, Samuel (2017) Kuhnian theory-choice and virtue convergence: facing the base rate fallacy. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Perhaps the strongest argument for scientific realism, the no-miracles-argument, has been said to commit the so-called base rate fallacy. The apparent elusiveness of the base rate of true theories has even been said to undermine the rationality of the entire realism debate. In this paper, I confront this challenge by arguing, on the basis of the Kuhnian picture of theory choice, that a theory is likely to be true if it possesses multiple theoretical virtues and is embraced by numerous scientists, even when the base rate converges to zero.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Schindler, Samuel samuel.schindler@css.au.dk
Additional Information:	forthcoming in Studies in History and Philosophy of Science
Keywords:	scientific realism; no miracle argument; base rate fallacy; theoretical virtues; T.S. Kuhn; theory choice; convergence; witness testimony
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Philosophers of Science General Issues > Realism/Anti-realism General Issues > Values In Science
Depositing User:	Samuel Schindler
Date Deposited:	20 May 2017 13:59
Last Modified:	20 May 2017 13:59
Item ID:	13054
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Philosophers of Science General Issues > Realism/Anti-realism General Issues > Values In Science
Date:	2017
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/13054

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