Trpin, Borut (2019) Jeffrey Conditionalization: Proceed with Caution. Philosophical Studies. pp. 1-28. ISSN 0031-8116
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Abstract
It has been argued that if the rigidity condition is satisfied, a rational agent operating with uncertain evidence should update her subjective probabilities by Jeffrey conditionalization (JC) or else a series of bets resulting in a sure loss could be made against her (the Dynamic Dutch Book Argument). We show, however, that even if the rigidity condition is satisfied, it is not always safe to update probability distributions by JC because there exist such sequences of non-misleading uncertain observations where it may be foreseen that an agent who updates her subjective probabilities by JC will end up nearly certain that a false hypothesis is true. We analyze the features of JC that lead to this problem, specify the conditions in which it arises and respond to potential objections.
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| Item Type: | Published Article or Volume | ||||||
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| Keywords: | Jeffrey conditionalization, belief updating, uncertain evidence, epistemic inaccuracy, formal epistemology | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Evidence General Issues > Theory/Observation |
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| Depositing User: | Dr. Borut Trpin | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 05 Nov 2019 03:02 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 05 Nov 2019 03:02 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 16614 | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Philosophical Studies | ||||||
| Publisher: | Springer (Springer Science+Business Media B.V.) | ||||||
| DOI or Unique Handle: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11098-019-01356-3 | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Evidence General Issues > Theory/Observation |
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| Date: | 1 November 2019 | ||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 1-28 | ||||||
| ISSN: | 0031-8116 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/16614 |
Available Versions of this Item
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Jeffrey Conditionalization: Proceed with Caution. (deposited 10 Oct 2019 01:53)
- Jeffrey Conditionalization: Proceed with Caution. (deposited 05 Nov 2019 03:02) [Currently Displayed]
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