Sprenger, Jan (2019) Conditional Degree of Belief and Bayesian Inference. Philosophy of Science, 87 (2). pp. 319-335. ISSN 1539-767X
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Abstract
Why are conditional degrees of belief in an observation E, given a statistical hypothesis H, aligned with the objective probabilities expressed by H? After showing that standard replies (ratio analysis of conditional probability, chance-credence coordination) are not satisfactory, I develop a suppositional analysis of conditional degree of belief, transferring Ramsey’s classical proposal to statistical inference. The analysis saves the alignment, explains the role of chance-credence coordination, and rebuts the charge of arbitrary assessment of evidence in Bayesian inference. Finally, I explore the implications of this analysis for Bayesian reasoning with idealized models in science.
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Item Type: | Published Article or Volume | ||||||
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Keywords: | conditional probability, degree of belief, statistical inference, Principal Principle, Ramsey | ||||||
Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Models and Idealization Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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Depositing User: | Jan Sprenger | ||||||
Date Deposited: | 13 May 2020 01:43 | ||||||
Last Modified: | 13 May 2020 01:43 | ||||||
Item ID: | 17174 | ||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Philosophy of Science | ||||||
Publisher: | University of Chicago Press | ||||||
Official URL: | https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/... | ||||||
DOI or Unique Handle: | https://doi.org/10.1086/707554 | ||||||
Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Models and Idealization Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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Date: | 1 July 2019 | ||||||
Page Range: | pp. 319-335 | ||||||
Volume: | 87 | ||||||
Number: | 2 | ||||||
ISSN: | 1539-767X | ||||||
URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/17174 |
Available Versions of this Item
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Conditional Degree of Belief. (deposited 13 Dec 2015 13:20)
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Conditional Degree of Belief. (deposited 25 Feb 2016 04:06)
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Conditional Degree of Belief. (deposited 25 Jul 2016 17:06)
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Conditional Degree of Belief. (deposited 06 Oct 2017 05:06)
- Conditional Degree of Belief and Bayesian Inference. (deposited 13 May 2020 01:43) [Currently Displayed]
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Conditional Degree of Belief. (deposited 06 Oct 2017 05:06)
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Conditional Degree of Belief. (deposited 25 Jul 2016 17:06)
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Conditional Degree of Belief. (deposited 25 Feb 2016 04:06)
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