PhilSci Archive

Conditional Degree of Belief and Bayesian Inference

Sprenger, Jan (2019) Conditional Degree of Belief and Bayesian Inference. Philosophy of Science, 87 (2). pp. 319-335. ISSN 1539-767X

This is the latest version of this item.

[img]
Preview
Text
ConditionalProbability_v12.pdf

Download (201kB) | Preview

Abstract

Why are conditional degrees of belief in an observation E, given a statistical hypothesis H, aligned with the objective probabilities expressed by H? After showing that standard replies (ratio analysis of conditional probability, chance-credence coordination) are not satisfactory, I develop a suppositional analysis of conditional degree of belief, transferring Ramsey’s classical proposal to statistical inference. The analysis saves the alignment, explains the role of chance-credence coordination, and rebuts the charge of arbitrary assessment of evidence in Bayesian inference. Finally, I explore the implications of this analysis for Bayesian reasoning with idealized models in science.


Export/Citation: EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL
Social Networking:
Share |

Item Type: Published Article or Volume
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Sprenger, Janj.sprenger@uvt.nl0000-0003-0083-9685
Keywords: conditional probability, degree of belief, statistical inference, Principal Principle, Ramsey
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Jan Sprenger
Date Deposited: 13 May 2020 01:43
Last Modified: 13 May 2020 01:43
Item ID: 17174
Journal or Publication Title: Philosophy of Science
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Official URL: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/...
DOI or Unique Handle: https://doi.org/10.1086/707554
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: 1 July 2019
Page Range: pp. 319-335
Volume: 87
Number: 2
ISSN: 1539-767X
URI: https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/17174

Available Versions of this Item

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Altmetric.com

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item