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Bayesian Recalibration: A Generalization

Roush, Sherrilyn (2017) Bayesian Recalibration: A Generalization. [Preprint]

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Roush (2009) derived a probabilistic framework for updating one’s first-order degree of belief in q in light of evidence about one’s own reliability in making q-like claims, thus providing the probabilistic rationality constraint for resolving epistemic self-doubt. In this note the argument is generalized to the case where the evidence about one’s reliability or one’s degree of belief in q is uncertain, by development of a Jeffrey-style version of the Re-Calibration equation. This allows illustrative applications of the framework to examples where higher-order evidence is of varying qualities. The equation is applied here to the familiar examples of hypoxia and peer disagreement.

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Item Type: Preprint
Keywords: Bayesian, rationality, recalibration, higher-order evidence, self-doubt
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Evidence
Depositing User: Sherrilyn Roush
Date Deposited: 24 Jun 2020 01:43
Last Modified: 24 Jun 2020 01:43
Item ID: 17362
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Evidence
Date: 2017

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