Schurz, Gerhard
(2020)
Tacking by Conjunction, Genuine Confirmation and Bayesian Convergence.
In: UNSPECIFIED.
Abstract
Tacking by conjunction is a well-known problem for Bayesian confirmation theory. In the first section of the paper we point out disadvantages of orthodox Bayesian solu-tion proposals to this problem and develop an alternative solution based on a strengthened concept of probabilistic confirmation, called genuine confirmation. In the second section we illustrate the application of the concept of genuine confirmation to Goodman-type counter-inductive generalizations and to post-facto speculations. In the final section we demonstrate that genuine confirmation is a necessary condition for Bayesian convergence to certainty based on the accumulation of conditionally in-dependent pieces of evidence.
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