Dong, Zili (2024) Wright’s path analysis: Causal inference in the early twentieth century. THEORIA. An International Journal for Theory, History and Foundations of Science, 39 (1). pp. 67-88. ISSN 2171-679X

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Abstract

Despite being a milestone in the history of statistical causal inference, Sewall Wright’s 1918 invention of path analysis did not receive much immediate attention from the statistical and scientific community. Through a careful historical analysis, this paper reveals some previously overlooked philosophical issues concerning the history of causal inference. Placing the invention of path analysis in a broader historical and intellectual context, I portray the scientific community’s initial lack of interest in the method as a natural consequence of relevant scientific and philosophical conditions. In addition to Karl Pearson’s positivist refutation of causation, I contend that the acceptance of path analysis faced several other challenges, including the introduction of a new formalism, conceptual barriers to causal inference, and the lack of model-based statistical thinking. The presence of these challenges shows that the delayed progress in causal inference in the early twentieth century was inevitable.

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Item Type:	Published Article or Volume
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Dong, Zili zdong67@uwo.ca 0000-0002-3697-1592
Additional Information:	ISSN: 0495-4548 (print)
Keywords:	Sewall Wright, path analysis, Karl Pearson, causal inference, history of statistics
Subjects:	General Issues > Causation General Issues > History of Science Case Studies General Issues > Philosophers of Science Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User:	Unnamed user with email theoria@ehu.es
Date Deposited:	03 Aug 2024 15:33
Last Modified:	03 Aug 2024 15:33
Item ID:	23760
Journal or Publication Title:	THEORIA. An International Journal for Theory, History and Foundations of Science
Publisher:	Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea / Universidad del País Vasco
Official URL:	https://ojs.ehu.eus/index.php/THEORIA/article/view...
DOI or Unique Handle:	10.1387/theoria.24823
Subjects:	General Issues > Causation General Issues > History of Science Case Studies General Issues > Philosophers of Science Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date:	January 2024
Page Range:	pp. 67-88
Volume:	39
Number:	1
ISSN:	2171-679X
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/23760

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