Dethier, Corey (2023) Who's Afriad of the Base-Rate Fallacy? [Preprint]

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the back-and-forth between Mayo, Howson, and Achinstein over whether classical statistics commits the base-rate fallacy. I show that Mayo is correct to claim that Howson's arguments rely on a misunderstanding of classical theory. I then argue that Achinstein's refined version of the argument turns on largely undefended epistemic assumptions about “what we care about” when evaluating hypotheses. I end by suggesting that Mayo's positive arguments are no more decisive than her opponents’: even if correct, they are unlikely to compel anyone not already sympathetic to the classical picture.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Dethier, Corey corey.dethier@gmail.com 0000-0002-1240-8391
Additional Information:	forthcoming in Philosophy of Science
Keywords:	statistics, base-rate fallacy, frequentism, Bayesianism, Mayo
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User:	Dr. Corey Dethier
Date Deposited:	24 Aug 2024 05:08
Last Modified:	24 Aug 2024 05:08
Item ID:	23817
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date:	2023
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/23817

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