Hartmann, Stephan (2024) The Bayesian Research Programme in the Methodology of Science or Lakatos Meets Bayes. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Lakatos argued that Carnap's research programme in inductive logic was degenerative because it underwent a degenerative problem-shift by dealing with ever more specific internal problems and thereby moving further and further away from its original goals. Here I show that this criticism (which may apply to Carnap) cannot be levelled at the contemporary successor to Carnap's programme, Bayesianism. To this end, I discuss various challenges and show how they can be addressed within the Bayesian research programme. In each of these cases, I argue, one can speak of a ‘progressive problem shift’. I therefore conclude that the Bayesian research programme in the methodology of science is progressive. Nevertheless, it is essential to continue to explore alternatives to it and to develop criteria for comparing competing research programmes.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Hartmann, Stephan s.hartmann@lmu.de 0000-0001-8676-2177
Keywords:	Lakatos, Bayesianism
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Philosophers of Science General Issues > Theory Change
Depositing User:	Stephan Hartmann
Date Deposited:	28 Sep 2024 12:13
Last Modified:	28 Sep 2024 12:13
Item ID:	23971
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Philosophers of Science General Issues > Theory Change
Date:	28 September 2024
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/23971

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