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Sleeping Beauty and the Problem of World Reduction

Franceschi, Paul (2005) Sleeping Beauty and the Problem of World Reduction. [Preprint]

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Abstract

I describe in this paper a solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I begin with the consensual emerald case and discuss then Bostrom's Incubator gedanken. I address then the Sleeping Beauty problem. I argue that the root cause of the flaw in the argument for 1/3 is an erroneous assimilation with a repeated experiment. I show that the same type of analysis also applies to Elga's version of the argument for 1/3. Lastly, I show that the core of the Sleeping Beauty problem is related to the problem of world reduction.

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Item Type: Preprint
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Franceschi, Paul
Additional Information: section related to the problem of world reduction revised
Keywords: Sleeping Beauty problem, probability theory, emerald case, observational selection effects
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
General Issues > Thought Experiments
Depositing User: Paul Franceschi
Date Deposited: 20 Dec 2005
Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 15:13
Item ID: 2572
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
General Issues > Thought Experiments
Date: December 2005
URI: https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/2572

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