Sprenger, Jan (2007) Probability, Rational Single-Case Decisions and the Monty Hall Problem. [Preprint]

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Abstract

The application of probabilistic arguments to single cases and decision-making is a contentious philosophical problem arises in various contexts. This paper focuses on the validity of probabilistic arguments in the Monty Hall problem and a variation thereof. Two claims are made and defended. First, preferring a certain strategy to another in the Monty Hall Problem does not need any recourse to long-run success frequencies. Second, recent attempts to refute the standard solution of the Monty Hall Problem fail.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Sprenger, Jan
Keywords:	Probability, Rational Decision, Monty Hall Problem
Subjects:	General Issues > Decision Theory General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User:	Jan Sprenger
Date Deposited:	13 Dec 2007
Last Modified:	07 Oct 2010 15:15
Item ID:	3727
Subjects:	General Issues > Decision Theory General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date:	December 2007
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/3727

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