Pietsch, Wolfgang (2016) Causal Interpretations of Probability. [Preprint]
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Abstract
The prospects of a causal interpretation of probability are examined. Various accounts both from the history of scientific method and from recent developments in the tradition of the method of arbitrary functions, in particular by Strevens, Rosenthal, and Abrams, are briefly introduced and assessed. I then present a specific account of causal probability with the following features: (i) First, the link between causal probability and a particular account of induction and causation is established, namely eliminative induction and the related difference-making account of causation in the tradition of Bacon, Herschel, and Mill. (ii) Second, it is shown how a causal approach is useful beyond applications of the method of arbitrary functions and is able to deal with various shades of both ontic and epistemic probabilities. (iii) Furthermore, I clarify the notion of causal symmetry as a central element of an objective version of the principle of indifference and relate probabilistic independence to causal irrelevance. According to the proposed account, probability distributions are interpreted in terms of causal symmetries in the circumstances rather than relative frequencies.
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| Item Type: | Preprint | ||||||
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| Keywords: | causation; probability; method of arbitrary functions; eliminative induction; principle of indifference; symmetry; independence | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Causation General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics Specific Sciences > Physics > Statistical Mechanics/Thermodynamics Specific Sciences > Physics > Symmetries/Invariances |
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| Depositing User: | Wolfgang Pietsch | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 25 Oct 2016 13:04 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 25 Oct 2016 13:04 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 12513 | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Causation General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics Specific Sciences > Physics > Statistical Mechanics/Thermodynamics Specific Sciences > Physics > Symmetries/Invariances |
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| Date: | 25 October 2016 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/12513 |
Available Versions of this Item
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Causal Interpretations of Probability. (deposited 10 Feb 2015 23:20)
- Causal Interpretations of Probability. (deposited 25 Oct 2016 13:04) [Currently Displayed]
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