Ackermans, Lennart B.
(2024)
Sleeping Beauty: Why Everyone Should Be a Thirder.
[Preprint]
Abstract
The last two decades have seen a heated debate between "halfers" and "thirders:" those who believe Sleeping Beauty's credence in a coin landing heads is 1/2 and those who believe it is 1/3 – as well as quite some alternative positions. This paper attempts to put an end to halfism. I present a new argument for thirdism which cannot be resisted using any of the previously used halfer strategies. My argument uses an analogy in which Sleeping Beauty has a lucid dream on each day. To arrive at thirdism, she uses an unproblematic type of Bayesian conditionalisation, the principle of indifference, and the principal principle. I argue that all of these reasoning steps should be uncontroversial. Finally, I argue that all published defences of halfism are untenable.
Available Versions of this Item
-
Sleeping Beauty: Why Everyone Should Be a Thirder. (deposited 12 Feb 2024 03:33)
[Currently Displayed]
Monthly Views for the past 3 years
Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years
Plum Analytics
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
![[feed]](http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/style/images/feed-icon-32x32.png){kind=icon}