Ackermans, Lennart B.
(2024)
A double-halfer embarrassment: Response to Pust.
[Preprint]
Abstract
Titelbaum (2012) introduced a variant of the Sleeping Beauty problem in which a coin is tossed on both Monday and Tuesday, with the Tuesday toss not affecting Beauty's condition. Titelbaum argues that double-halfers are committed to the embarrassing position that Beauty's credence that today's coin toss lands heads is greater than 1/2. Pust (2023) agrees with the result, but argues that it is not a distinctive embarrassment for halfers. I argue that thirders need not be embarrassed. Double-halfers, on the other hand, must hold that Beauty's evidence is admissible for direct inference with respect to Monday's coin toss, but not with respect to today's coin toss. This is embarrassing because (1) a plausible argument exists for the opposite position, and (2) the position conflicts with the central intuition guiding double halfism.
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A double-halfer embarrassment: Response to Pust. (deposited 13 Dec 2024 15:25)
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