Ackermans, Lennart B. (2024) A double-halfer embarrassment: Response to Pust. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Titelbaum (2012) introduced a variant of the Sleeping Beauty problem in which a coin is tossed on both Monday and Tuesday, with the Tuesday toss not affecting Beauty's condition. Titelbaum argues that double-halfers are committed to the embarrassing position that Beauty's credence that today's coin toss lands heads is greater than 1/2. Pust (2023) agrees with the result, but argues that it is not a distinctive embarrassment for halfers. I argue that thirders need not be embarrassed. Double-halfers, on the other hand, must hold that Beauty's evidence is admissible for direct inference with respect to Monday's coin toss, but not with respect to today's coin toss. This is embarrassing because (1) a plausible argument exists for the opposite position, and (2) the position conflicts with the central intuition guiding double halfism.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Ackermans, Lennart B. philosophy@ackermans.ch 0000-0003-0071-2270
Keywords:	sleeping beauty, double halfism, self-locating evidence, direct inference, admissible evidence
Subjects:	General Issues > Decision Theory Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User:	Lennart Ackermans
Date Deposited:	13 Dec 2024 15:25
Last Modified:	13 Dec 2024 15:25
Item ID:	24385
Subjects:	General Issues > Decision Theory Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date:	12 December 2024
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/24385

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