Northcott, Robert (2014) Opinion polling and election predictions. In: UNSPECIFIED.

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Abstract

Election prediction by means of opinion polling is a rare empirical success story for social science, but one not previously considered by philosophers. I examine the details of a prominent case, namely the 2012 US presidential election, and draw two lessons of more general interest:
1) Methodology over metaphysics. Traditional metaphysical criteria were not a useful guide to whether successful prediction would be possible; instead, the crucial thing was selecting an effective methodology.
2) Which methodology? Success required sophisticated use of case-specific evidence from opinion polling. The pursuit of explanations via general theory or causal mechanisms, by contrast, turned out to be precisely the wrong path – contrary to much recent philosophy of social science

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Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Northcott, Robert r.northcott@bbk.ac.uk
Keywords:	opinion polls, elections, prediction, explanation, mechanism, theory, social science
Subjects:	General Issues > Causation Specific Sciences > Economics General Issues > Explanation General Issues > History of Science Case Studies General Issues > Models and Idealization Specific Sciences > Sociology
Depositing User:	Robert Northcott
Date Deposited:	12 Jul 2014 12:32
Last Modified:	12 Jul 2014 12:32
Item ID:	10873
Subjects:	General Issues > Causation Specific Sciences > Economics General Issues > Explanation General Issues > History of Science Case Studies General Issues > Models and Idealization Specific Sciences > Sociology
Date:	11 July 2014
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/10873

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