PhilSci Archive

Explanatory Value and Probabilistic Reasoning

Colombo, Matteo and Bucher, Leandra and Postma, Marie and Sprenger, Jan (2014) Explanatory Value and Probabilistic Reasoning. [Preprint]

This is the latest version of this item.

[img] PDF
ExplanationProbability_v5.pdf

Download (170kB)

Abstract

The question of how judgments of explanatory value (should) inform probabilistic inference is well studied within psychology and philosophy. Less studied are the questions: How does probabilistic information affect judgments of explanatory value? Does probabilistic information take precedence over causal information in determining explanatory judgments? To answer these questions, we conducted two experimental studies. In Study 1, we found that probabilistic information had a negligible impact on explanatory judgments of event-types with a potentially unlimited number of available, alternative explanations; causal credibility was the main determinant of explanatory value. In Study 2, we found that, for event-token explanations with a definite set of candidate alternatives, probabilistic information strongly affected judgments of explanatory value. In the light of these findings, we reassess under which circumstances explanatory inference is probabilistically sound.


Export/Citation: EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL
Social Networking:
Share |

Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Colombo, Matteom.colombo@uvt.nl
Bucher, Leandraleandra.bucher@psychol.uni-giessen.de
Postma, Mariemarie.postma@uvt.nl
Sprenger, Janj.sprenger@uvt.nl
Keywords: explanation, probability, causality, abduction
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Experimentation
General Issues > Explanation
Specific Sciences > Psychology/Psychiatry
Depositing User: Jan Sprenger
Date Deposited: 26 Mar 2015 14:30
Last Modified: 26 Mar 2015 14:30
Item ID: 11392
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Experimentation
General Issues > Explanation
Specific Sciences > Psychology/Psychiatry
Date: 2014
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/11392

Available Versions of this Item

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item