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Conditional Degree of Belief

Sprenger, Jan (2015) Conditional Degree of Belief. [Preprint]

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Abstract

It is a commonplace in epistemology that credences should equal known chances. It is less clear, however, that conditional credences should do so, too. Following Ramsey, this paper proposes a counterfactual interpretation of conditional probability which provides a justification for this equality without relying on the Principal Principle. As a result, we obtain a refined view of Bayesian inference where both learning and supposing have a place.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Sprenger, Janj.sprenger@uvt.nl
Keywords: conditional probability, degree of belief, statistical inference, Principal Principle, Ramsey
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Jan Sprenger
Date Deposited: 13 Dec 2015 13:20
Last Modified: 25 Feb 2016 04:06
Item ID: 11798
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: 7 December 2015
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/11798

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