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The No Miracles Argument without the Base Rate Fallacy

Dawid, Richard and Hartmann, Stephan (2016) The No Miracles Argument without the Base Rate Fallacy. [Preprint]

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Abstract

According to an argument by Colin Howson, the no-miracles argument is contingent on committing the base-rate fallacy and is therefore bound to fail. We demonstrate that Howson's argument only applies to one of two versions of the no-miracles argument. The other, more considerate version is not adequately reconstructed in Howson's
approach and thus remains unaffected by his line of reasoning. We provide a Bayesian reconstruction of this version of the no-miracles argument and show that it is valid. We then proceed to discuss a number of aspects of NMA on that basis.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Dawid, Richardrichard.dawid@univie.ac.at
Hartmann, StephanS.Hartmann@lmu.de
Keywords: Bayesianism, no miracles argument, realism, base rate fallacy
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Realism/Anti-realism
Depositing User: Dr. Richard Dawid
Date Deposited: 25 Jan 2016 18:22
Last Modified: 25 Jan 2016 18:22
Item ID: 11883
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Realism/Anti-realism
Date: January 2016
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/11883

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