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Foundations for a Probabilistic Theory of Causal Strength

Sprenger, Jan (2016) Foundations for a Probabilistic Theory of Causal Strength. [Preprint]

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This paper develops axiomatic foundations for a probabilistic-interventionist theory of causal strength. Transferring methods from Bayesian confirmation theory, I proceed in three steps: (1) I develop a framework for defining and comparing measures of causal strength; (2) I argue that no single measure can satisfy all natural constraints; (3) I prove two representation theorems for popular measures of causal strength: Pearl's causal effect measure and Eells' difference measure. In other words, I demonstrate these two measures can be derived from a set of plausible adequacy conditions. The paper concludes by sketching future research avenues.

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Item Type: Preprint
Subjects: General Issues > Causation
Specific Sciences > Computer Science
General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Explanation
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Jan Sprenger
Date Deposited: 25 Feb 2016 04:04
Last Modified: 25 Feb 2016 04:04
Item ID: 11927

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