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Foundations for a Probabilistic Theory of Causal Strength

Sprenger, Jan (2016) Foundations for a Probabilistic Theory of Causal Strength. [Preprint]

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    This paper develops axiomatic foundations for a probabilistic-interventionist theory of causal strength. Transferring methods from Bayesian confirmation theory, I proceed in three steps: (1) I develop a framework for defining and comparing measures of causal strength; (2) I argue that no single measure can satisfy all natural constraints; (3) I prove two representation theorems for popular measures of causal strength: Pearl's causal effect measure and Eells' difference measure. In other words, I demonstrate these two measures can be derived from a set of plausible adequacy conditions. The paper concludes by sketching future research avenues.

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    Item Type: Preprint
    Subjects: General Issues > Causation
    Specific Sciences > Computer Science
    General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
    General Issues > Explanation
    Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
    Depositing User: Jan Sprenger
    Date Deposited: 24 Feb 2016 23:04
    Last Modified: 24 Feb 2016 23:04
    Item ID: 11927

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