PhilSci Archive

Kuhnian theory-choice and virtue convergence: facing the base rate fallacy

Schindler, Samuel (2017) Kuhnian theory-choice and virtue convergence: facing the base rate fallacy. [Preprint]

[img]
Preview
Text
Ktchoice base rates final.pdf - Accepted Version

Download (241kB) | Preview

Abstract

Perhaps the strongest argument for scientific realism, the no-miracles-argument, has been said to commit the so-called base rate fallacy. The apparent elusiveness of the base rate of true theories has even been said to undermine the rationality of the entire realism debate. In this paper, I confront this challenge by arguing, on the basis of the Kuhnian picture of theory choice, that a theory is likely to be true if it possesses multiple theoretical virtues and is embraced by numerous scientists, even when the base rate converges to zero.


Export/Citation: EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL
Social Networking:
Share |

Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Schindler, Samuelsamuel.schindler@css.au.dk
Additional Information: forthcoming in Studies in History and Philosophy of Science
Keywords: scientific realism; no miracle argument; base rate fallacy; theoretical virtues; T.S. Kuhn; theory choice; convergence; witness testimony
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Philosophers of Science
General Issues > Realism/Anti-realism
General Issues > Values In Science
Depositing User: Samuel Schindler
Date Deposited: 20 May 2017 13:59
Last Modified: 20 May 2017 13:59
Item ID: 13054
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Philosophers of Science
General Issues > Realism/Anti-realism
General Issues > Values In Science
Date: 2017
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/13054

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item