PhilSci Archive

On the correct interpretation of p values and the importance of random variables

Rochefort-Maranda, Guillaume (2016) On the correct interpretation of p values and the importance of random variables. Synthese, 193. ISSN 1573-0964

[img]
Preview
Text
On_the_Correct_Interpretation_of_P-value.pdf

Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

The p value is the probability under the null hypothesis of obtaining an experimental result that is at least as extreme as the one that we have actually obtained. That probability plays a crucial role in frequentist statistical inferences. But if we take the word ‘extreme’ to mean ‘improbable’, then we can show that this type of inference can be very problematic. In this paper, I argue that it is a mistake to make such an interpretation. Under minimal assumptions about the alternative hypothesis, I explain why ‘extreme’ means ‘outside the most precise predicted range of experimental outcomes for a given upper bound probability of error’. Doing so, I rebut recent formulations of recurrent criticisms against the frequentist approach in statistics and underscore the importance of random variables.


Export/Citation: EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL
Social Networking:
Share |

Item Type: Published Article or Volume
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Rochefort-Maranda, Guillaumeguillaumemaranda@hotmail.com
Keywords: p value; Frequentist statistics; Theory testing
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Dr. Guillaume Rochefort-Maranda
Date Deposited: 12 Sep 2017 15:08
Last Modified: 12 Sep 2017 15:08
Item ID: 13416
Journal or Publication Title: Synthese
Publisher: Springer (Springer Science+Business Media B.V.)
DOI or Unique Handle: DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-015-0807-0
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: June 2016
Volume: 193
ISSN: 1573-0964
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/13416

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Altmetric.com

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item