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Sleeping Beauty goes to the lab: The psychology of self-locating evidence

Colombo, Matteo and Lai, Jun and Crupi, Vincenzo (2018) Sleeping Beauty goes to the lab: The psychology of self-locating evidence. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Analyses of the Sleeping Beauty Problem are polarised between those advocating the “1/2 view” (“halfers”) and those endorsing the “1/3 view” (“thirders”). The disagreement concerns the evidential relevance of self-locating information. Unlike halfers, thirders regard self-locating information as evidentially relevant in the Sleeping Beauty Problem. In the present study, we systematically manipulate the kind of information available in different formulations of the Sleeping Beauty Problem. Our findings indicate that patterns of judgment on different formulations of the Sleeping Beauty Problem do not fit either the “1/2 view” or the “1/3 view.” Human reasoners tend to acknowledge self-locating evidence as relevant, but discount its weight significantly. Accordingly, self-locating information may trigger more cautious judgments of confirmation than familiar kinds of statistical evidence. We also discuss how these results can advance the debate by providing a more nuanced and empirically grounded account or explication of the evidential impact of self-locating information.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Colombo, Matteom.colombo@uvt.nl
Lai, Jun
Crupi, Vincenzo
Keywords: sleeping beauty problem; probability; reasoning; self-locating evidence
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Specific Sciences > Psychology/Psychiatry
Depositing User: Dr. Matteo Colombo
Date Deposited: 04 Jan 2018 15:42
Last Modified: 04 Jan 2018 15:42
Item ID: 14250
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Specific Sciences > Psychology/Psychiatry
Date: 3 January 2018
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/14250

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