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In favor of logarithmic scoring

McCutcheon, Randall G. (2018) In favor of logarithmic scoring. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Shuford, Albert and Massengill proved, a half century ago, that the logarithmic scoring rule is the only proper measure of inaccuracy determined by a differentiable function of probability assigned the actual cell of a scored partition. In spite of this, the log rule has gained less traction in applied disciplines and among formal epistemologists that one might expect. In this paper we show that the differentiability criterion in the Shuford et. al. result is unnecessary and use the resulting simplified characterization of the logarithmic rule to give novel arguments in favor of it.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
McCutcheon, Randall G.rmcctchn@memphis.edu0000-0002-5305-3662
Additional Information: Forthcoming in Philosophy of Science
Keywords: scoring rules, Brier score, epistemic accuracy
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Epistemology
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Dr. Randall G. McCutcheon
Date Deposited: 24 May 2018 18:10
Last Modified: 24 May 2018 18:10
Item ID: 14700
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Epistemology
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: 22 May 2018
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/14700

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