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Is there a Bayesian justification of hypothetico-deductive inference?

Okasha, Samir and Thebault, Karim P Y (2018) Is there a Bayesian justification of hypothetico-deductive inference? [Preprint]

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Abstract

Many philosophers have claimed that Bayesianism can provide a simple justification for hypothetico-deductive (H-D) inference, long regarded as a cornerstone of the scientific method. Following up a remark of van Fraassen (1985), we analyze a problem for the putative Bayesian justification of H-D inference in the case where what we learn from observation is logically stronger than what our theory implies. Firstly, we demonstrate that in such cases the simple Bayesian justification does not necessarily apply. Secondly, we identify a set of sufficient conditions for the mismatch in logical strength to be justifiably ignored as a "harmless idealization''. Thirdly, we argue, based upon scientific examples, that the pattern of H-D inference of which there is a ready Bayesian justification is only rarely the pattern that one actually finds at work in science. Whatever the other virtues of Bayesianism, the idea that it yields a simple justification of a pervasive pattern of scientific inference appears to have been oversold.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Okasha, SamirSamir.Okasha@bristol.ac.uk
Thebault, Karim P Ykarim.thebault@gmail.com
Keywords: hypothetico-deductive inference, Bayesian confirmation theory
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Experimentation
Specific Sciences > Physics > Fields and Particles
Specific Sciences > Physics > Quantum Field Theory
General Issues > Theory/Observation
Depositing User: Dr Karim Thebault
Date Deposited: 08 Oct 2018 13:23
Last Modified: 08 Oct 2018 13:23
Item ID: 15122
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Experimentation
Specific Sciences > Physics > Fields and Particles
Specific Sciences > Physics > Quantum Field Theory
General Issues > Theory/Observation
Date: 8 October 2018
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/15122

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