Northcott, Robert (2018) Prediction versus Accommodation in Economics. [Preprint]

Preview

Text INEM 6.w18.pdf Download (307kB) | Preview

Abstract

Should we insist on prediction, i.e. on correctly forecasting the future? Or can we rest content with accommodation, i.e. empirical success only with respect to the past? I apply general considerations about this issue to the case of economics. In particular, I examine various ways in which mere accommodation can be sufficient, in order to see whether those ways apply to economics. Two conclusions result. First, an entanglement thesis: the need for prediction is entangled with the methodological role of orthodox economic theory. Second, a conditional predictivism: if we are not committed to orthodox economic theory, then (often) we should demand prediction rather than accommodation – against most current practice.

---

Export/Citation:

EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL

Social Networking:

Share |

---

Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Northcott, Robert r.northcott@bbk.ac.uk
Additional Information:	forthcoming in Journal of Economic Methodology
Keywords:	prediction; accommodation; economics; explanation; confirmation; models
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Economics General Issues > Explanation
Depositing User:	Dr Robert Northcott
Date Deposited:	27 Dec 2018 00:11
Last Modified:	27 Dec 2018 00:11
Item ID:	15506
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Economics General Issues > Explanation
Date:	26 December 2018
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/15506

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Actions (login required)

View Item