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Jeffrey Conditionalization: Proceed with Caution

Trpin, Borut (2019) Jeffrey Conditionalization: Proceed with Caution. Philosophical Studies. pp. 1-28. ISSN 0031-8116

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Abstract

It has been argued that if the rigidity condition is satisfied, a rational agent operating with uncertain evidence should update her subjective probabilities by Jeffrey conditionalization (JC) or else a series of bets resulting in a sure loss could be made against her (the Dynamic Dutch Book Argument). We show, however, that even if the rigidity condition is satisfied, it is not always safe to update probability distributions by JC because there exist such sequences of non-misleading uncertain observations where it may be foreseen that an agent who updates her subjective probabilities by JC will end up nearly certain that a false hypothesis is true. We analyze the features of JC that lead to this problem, specify the conditions in which it arises and respond to potential objections.


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Item Type: Published Article or Volume
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Trpin, Borutborut.trpin@lrz.uni-muenchen.de
Keywords: Jeffrey conditionalization, belief updating, uncertain evidence, epistemic inaccuracy, formal epistemology
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Evidence
General Issues > Theory/Observation
Depositing User: Dr. Borut Trpin
Date Deposited: 05 Nov 2019 03:02
Last Modified: 05 Nov 2019 03:02
Item ID: 16614
Journal or Publication Title: Philosophical Studies
Publisher: Springer (Springer Science+Business Media B.V.)
DOI or Unique Handle: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11098-019-01356-3
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Evidence
General Issues > Theory/Observation
Date: 1 November 2019
Page Range: pp. 1-28
ISSN: 0031-8116
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/16614

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